Weather Map Wednesday

We are going up to the 700mb pressure surface to analyze today's weather map. Meteorologists use pressure surfaces to analyze the height from the surface to a given pressure level. In this case, the height from the surface to 700mb in Northern Michigan is roughly 3120 meters. 
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Heights are important because when the [heights] fall, rising motion often occurs ahead of it. On the large scale, this can be seen as a kink or trough. The trough is drawn as a brown dashed line. 
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The mid level trough developed in response to a complex of thunderstorms that developed in the northern Plains yesterday (MCC). These mid level waves are often very difficult to forecast in advance, thus the cloud cover forecast today was a bit of a surprise.

Not all forecasts are perfect and it is OKAY to admit the forecast was wrong, just have a scientific reason to back it up! This was my reason today. The best forecasters will always look current data before diving into computer models because of this exact scenario. Even then, forecasting has it's challenges. Make sure you check back every Wednesday for a new weather setup.

Today's map features a 1006 mb low lifting north and east with a quasi-stationary front with a sharp moisture gradient.

A moist and eventually unstable air mass will develop storms in Wisconsin.

Something I am monitoring will be the backing winds along the warm front around Alpena, Rogers City and the Straits area.

If enough instability builds up, isolated severe storms will develop near the front against a lake breeze. There will be enough of a wind shift in the atmosphere for a possible tornado.

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Much of Northwest lower is under a 5% risk for tornadoes, meaning if you were to drop a pin in northwest lower, any point within 25 miles would have a 5% shot at seeing a tornado. Based on tornado climatology, the probability of a tornado is 25 to 50 times higher than normal.

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Even then, the tornado risk remains something to keep an eye on this evening as storms evolve. Initial supercells that should grow upscale to MCS/Bowing Structures.

A weak low is pulling up some Gulf moisture today, bringing some moderate to heavy rainfall today. It looks to be a pretty steady rain at times, with a rumble or two. 

This will not produce severe weather north with limited instability and lack of winds shear. 

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It is worth noting the latest SPC Mesoanalysis, which does provide some decent shear from the surface to 8km in the southern Lower Peninsula. Given limited instability, it is unlikely that storms would be able to tap into the deep layer shear, thus severe storms are not likely. 

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That being said, I can’t rule out a stronger storm or two, especially near the warm front (red line with half circles).

Weather Map Wednesday features an active day in parts of northern Michigan. A stationary is stretched from Ontario, southwest to northern IL.

With elevated instability, storms continue to fire and propagate toward high CAPE, where you see higher dewpoints in this case.

Weather Map Wednesday features the severe threat THIS EVENING across the Southern Plains.

The focus for convection to fire will be along the dryline circulation as the cap breaks in north Texas. If the cap breaks in the highest risk area. There would be the possibility of large hail and tornadoes, along with damaging winds.

Wichita Falls, TX to Lawton, OK are some areas to watch for severe storms this afternoon.

Hi! It’s Wednesday… which means it is Weather Map Wednesday This map is of yesterday’s colder northwest winds brought us a chilly afternoon.

Things do improve this weekend with warmer weather!

Weather Map Wednesday features a STRONG cold front advancing eastward.
In our neck of the woods a warm front continues to lift north thanks to Warm Air Advection. 60s and even some 70s this afternoon for the L.P.

This warm and unstable air will build into the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Once the front arrives this evening/tonight widespread showers and storms develop.

Much cooler air behind the front! I hope you enjoyed this tease of spring/early summer.

Today I am introducing an archived map. I’m also showing you 500mb, 850mb, and the surface. This is the setup at 8 am on September 7th, 2021. Do you remember that day?

A strong upper level trough is digging into the Great Lakes. Strong Warm Air Advection in the low-levels lead to an unstable boundary layer.

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Isentropic ascent along the warm front lead to a round of severe thunderstorms in the morning. Quarter-sized hail fell in Cadillac before Noon.

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Behind the warm front, warm/moist air led to destabilization ONCE AGAIN. The nose of the upper level jet was surging into Northern Michigan. This led to rapid rising motion. With little to no cap on the atmosphere, strong 850 winds were able to translate to the surface featuring gusts up to 75 mph.

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The U.S. 10 corridor was especially hard hit. Several downed trees and power lines.

This is a setup we hope we don’t have to deal with again this summer.

A low continuing to develop northeast. This will bring warm air north changing most precipitation falling to rain for the Lower Peninsula. Freezing rain for the U.P. into tonight.

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Today we are looking at a more active weather map today. A low is off to the south and west. It is in the occlusion phase, meaning cold air is going to start to take over the low, weakening the storm system.

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A warm front will stay to our south which is noted in the the Michigan SFC analysis.

But the low will continue to track through the Great Lakes leading to another round of snow this afternoon.

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The low rotates out by Thursday afternoon, translating ALL precipitation to Lake Effect Snow.

I am going to start sharing my maps and analysis every Wednesday so you can get an inside scoop at what I’m looking at daily!

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Today is pretty quiet at the surface. A few high thin clouds across northern Michigan this afternoon.

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A thicker cloud deck in southern Michigan looks to thin as it interacts with drier air.

West of the Great Lakes a baroclinic zone is developing (a front) with associated cloud cover.

That is the front we are watching for on Thursday and Friday to cool us down and bring some wet weather to end your workweek!